Use of Monte Carlo Simulation in Yogurt Logistic Management System for Quality Prediction

Abstract

Yogurt is a fermented milk product with high temperature sensitivity. During the distribution, the temperature histories vary among yogurt products, and can resulted in the different quality conditions. Thus the yogurt quality cannot be expressed using only fixed shelf life. The time-temperature integrator (TTI) is used as the monitoring method of the time-temperature history of individual yogurt product, to obtain the precise quality prediction. The prediction is conducted by combining the kinetic and Arrhenius equation. Monte Carlo simulation is accepted to cover the intrinsic weakness of the data through the mathematical calculation. As a result, the yogurt quality distribution predicted by TTI using Monte Carlo simulation is Pareto (122.52, 91.69), while the measured yogurt quality distribution is Pareto (122.52, 91). It is found that the values predicted by TTI can represent the reality best compared with other time-temperature recording methods, and is able to be used to monitor the temperature of yogurt products individually in the cold chain system.