Evaluation of Grey Forecasting Method in Total Indonesian Production Crude Oil and Condensate

Tien-Chin WANG, Muhammad GHALIH

Abstract


Nowadays, Indonesia's oil production decreases in combination with increased domestic demand turned Indonesia into a net oil importer. Petroleum is refined to produce gasoline and other petroleum products from crude oil. The refining process begins with the fractional distillation of heated crude oil. The crude oil components (gas, gasoline, naphtha, kerosene, light and heavy gas oils, and residuum) are separate into lighter and heavier hydrocarbons. In this study focus on the total of production of crude oil and condensate in Indonesia applied the GM (1,1) model of Grey theory to forecast the amount of total of production of crude oil and condensate in Indonesia from 1996 to 2015. According to the estimated result, the average residual error of the Grey forecast model 3 to 5 percent. The model predicts that the total of production will decrease in each year. Based on the experimental results, this proposed method apparently not only improve the forecasting accuracy of the original Grey models but also provide a valuable reference for Indonesia government to make the plan for the future.

Keywords


Crude oil, Condensate, Forecasting, GM (1,1), Grey theory, Production, Indonesia


DOI
10.12783/dtssehs/aetms2017/15877

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