Communication Equipment Residual Life Prediction Method Based on Multi-environmental Time Similarity Theory

Rui Guo, Yongjun Peng, Anping Wan, Lihua Wu, Ningdong You


In order to reduce the high costs of Communication Equipment operation and maintenance management, a novel residual life prediction method for Communication Equipment based on multi- environmental time similarity (METS) theory was proposed to make scientific and reasonable cost maintenance strategy of Communication Equipment. This method has introduced a reference Communication Equipment which has similar operational environment and type of the object Communication Equipment to obtain similarity coefficient (running hours and start/stop cycles) of the reference unit life evaluation parameters under actual operation conditions and benchmark operation conditions by using experience operational data. Based on the METS theory, the object unit factored running hours and start/stop cycles under benchmark operative conditions were obtained through calculating its actual running hours and start/stop cycles under actual operational conditions. And then the object unit residual life was predicted by comparing with maximum maintenance interval. Finally, a factory Communication Equipment HGP component residual life prediction is provided as the example to verify the scientific validity and feasibility of the prediction method.


communication equipment, theory of similarity, multi-environmental time similarity (METS) theory, residual life prediction


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