REVERSE LETHALITY AND TRAJECTORY MODELING FOR A FORENSIC APPLICATION

Abstract

This article concerns part of the forensic analysis performed in the aftermath of the MH17 incident, when a civilian airliner was downed over the Ukraine in July, 2014. This analysis was performed in the framework of the international Joint Investigation Team (JIT) created to investigate this incident. The article describes the followed approaches to determine the likely launch area of a BUK 9M38(M1) missile assumed to be responsible for downing the MH17 aircraft, based on a reverse lethality and trajectory modeling in three distinct phases. Firstly, the likely point of detonation in reference to the aircraft fuselage of flight MH17 was determined. In a second phase, the likely orientation of the missile was determined by matching the damage pattern as seen on the reconstructed MH17 fuselage to the dynamic fragmentation pattern of the warhead of the considered missile system. Finally, using a flyout model for the missile system, the likely launch area of the missile was determined as requested by the Joint Investigations Team. Although the different steps are not new in the field of ballistics, their reverse application and the case to which these were applied makes this work unique and might serve as a basis for any future similar cases that might arise.