The Empirical Study on the Effect of Population Aging on Transmission of Monetary Policy

Yang LU


This paper did not only analyze theoretically the effect of population aging on transmission of monetary policy, but also used panel VAR empirical model to study and compare the effect of population aging on credit channel with the provincial data from year 2004 to year 2015.It concluded that from the national view, population aging had significant effect on credit channel, which was quite volatile and continuous. What’s more, population aging has long term effect on GDP and CPI, negative, negative effect first and positive second respectively. From the partial view, eastern part turned to be positive and continuous in spite of negative temporarily and initially. However, central and western part was negative initially and becoming less and less. The effect on GDP was negative for all the parts, and the effect on CPI was positive first and negative second, but lasted for a long time only for eastern part.


Population aging, Transmission of monetary policy, Panel VAR


Full Text: