The Simulation Model of Urban Ecosystem Sustainable Development Based on System Dynamics

Bei ZHOU, Ji-wei ZHU, Ling WANG, Jian-cang XIE

Abstract


Much attention should be paid to the development of urban ecosystem, since it is an important component for urban development. This paper, taking Xi’an Chan-Ba Ecological District (CBE) as an example, based on System Dynamics method, establishes an urban ecosystem sustainable development model of “Population, Economy, Water resources, Land resources and Ecological environment (P—E—W—L—E)”, simulating dynamic indicators of all future subsystem through systematic recognition and test on a relevant series of data. The results as follows: after implementing sustainable development, the total population shows a rapid growth trend, and will reach 310,000 by 2000; land price of the core zone will be eight times higher than that of 2000; by 2020, species diversity index will reach 3.66, and the green coverage ratio will reach 35.1%. In the future, we must strengthen household registration system, and improve water resources usage efficiency, and implement the strictest land management system. Meanwhile we should accelerate optimizing regional industrial structure and raise environmental protection fund and intensify environmental conservation capacity.

Keywords


Urban ecological system, System dynamics, Sustainable development, Simulation


DOI
10.12783/dteees/eccsd2016/5841

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