A System Dynamics Approach to Modeling Climate Change Impact: A Case Study of Wood Materials for Buildings

Xiao-shu LÜ, Tao LU, Mark HUGHES, Katja VAHTIKARI


This paper presents a new system dynamics approach to modeling climate change impact. The approach we proposed is a physically based stochastic dynamic method. To illustrate the applicability of the model, a case study of wooden church building is conducted to simulate the impacts of climate change scenarios and the adaptive capacity of buildings’ wooden materials. Model predictions and forecasts are in good agreement to the measurements. Results show that wooden building materials offer an effective and resilient response to anticipated future climate changes. The developed model provides a sound basis for studying climate change impacts.


System dynamics model, Climate change, Case study, Wood materials, Buildings


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