Debris Evolution Analysis of Breakup Events Based on Modified Space Debris Evolution Model and Collision Factor

Zhi-ping YE, Tai-bin HU, Wan-xin ZHANG, Bo ZHAO


Breakup events are crucial source of space debris. It is important to focus on the effect of breakup model on space environment. In order to reveal the evolutionary mechanism of space debris environment based on breakup events, in this paper, elliptical orbits and solar radiation pressure perturbation are firstly considered to modify the altitude distribution model and orbit decay model in space debris evolution model (SDEM). Then based on the modified SDEM, the debris generation, evolution and the effects on collision probability of space environment caused by different altitude break up events are analyzed in detail. Furthermore, considering the volume that the debris sweep per unit time, collision factor is introduced to describe the effects of breakup events on collision probability, and a large value means a great influence. The results show that when breakup events happen on the low orbits, the number of debris decrease rapidly, while the high orbits break up events would cause long-term influence on space environment and the influence of collision events are more significant than explosion events. Moreover, the generation of space debris is related to the original space environment, the influence of collision events on space environment is larger than explosion events and non-functional spacecraft.


Space debris, Evolution model, Breakup events, Collision factor, Collision probability


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