Small-Area Net-Migration Estimation Based on Census Data

Ran REN, Tomás KELLY, Jian HUANG


Small-area population projections have applications in emergency planning, transport, commercial site selection and a variety of other areas. The population change of a small area is affected by both the regional economic-demographic influence and demographic processes births, deaths and migration in a complicated way. A number of models have been proposed for small-area population projections. However, the usage and accuracy of these models depend on the data available for analysis. Population change is the outcome of natural birth, death and migration. Hence, population projection can be decomposed to birth projection, death projection and migration projection. Birth projection, death projection can be carried out by using the age-gender specified death rates and age-specific fertility rates for higher level administrative areas (such as county level in Ireland). In this study we develop an empirical modelling approach for small-area migration estimation in Ireland using publicly-available Irish Census (2011 and 2016), death and mortality datasets from the Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ireland. Such estimation has potential applications in small-area population projections.


Population projection, Migration estimation, Small-Area


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