Distribution Network Operation Risk Assessment Considering Various Influencing Factors

Lei CHEN, Xian-shun ZHENG, Yi-jun YE


The frequent blackout caused by distribution network faults has sparked research on distribution system operation risks. For the continuous increase of operation risk influencing factors in the process of distribution network development, a risk assessment model considering various influencing factors of distribution network is proposed. In the model, a new method is adopted to calculate outage cost of distribution network, which reflects the comprehensive effect of interruption frequency, interruption duration and quantity of outage on the fault cost. The method can calculate outage cost better, and the distribution network risk assessment result is closer to actual situation. Finally, the Monte Carlo method is adopted to conduct the risk assessment of RBTS Bus - 3, and the evaluation results are compared with those of analytical methods to verify the effectiveness of the method.


Distribution network, Risk assessment, Outage cost, Monte Carlo method


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