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An Operation Reliability Prediction Method for CNC Machine Tool Based on Hidden Markov Chain Model

J. WU, C. DENG, Y.M. ZHU, C.Y. WU

Abstract


Due to the structure complexity of CNC machine tools and the easy-to-change of their usage conditions, there are still shortages of effective methods to predict the operation reliability of machine tools using the monitored performance data. In this paper, a new operation reliability prediction method based on hidden Markov chain model is proposed in order to track and predict the reliability level of CNC machine tools in real time. The model and process of operation reliability prediction is presented in detailed. A case study is carried out on an OTM650 CNC milling machine to validate the proposed method. The result shows that the proposed methodology is a useful technique for estimating the reliability level of machining performance degradation.

doi: 10.12783/SHM2015/283


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